China's commercial vehicles have experienced a serious overcapacity, and the structural excess of passenger car capacity has long been "on the road." To solve the current problem of overcapacity in the automobile industry, we must accelerate the structural reform of the supply side of the automobile industry. The automobile enterprises must develop the products that the market really needs through technological innovation. Second, we must accelerate the merger and reorganization of the automobile industry through the input of advanced technology and management. , integrate resources, optimize products, and achieve rebalancing between production and market

A few days ago, some media reported that due to overcapacity, the heavy truck backlog was serious, almost the same as the steel industry, to the point of "speaking on selling". Not to mention whether such a statement is somewhat exaggerated, but the overcapacity of China's auto production is an indisputable fact, which needs to cause us enough vigilance.

Internationally, the capacity utilization rate or equipment utilization rate is used as an evaluation indicator of whether the capacity is excessive. Equipment utilization rates of 79% to 83% are within a reasonable range. If the equipment operating rate exceeds 90%, it is considered to be insufficient capacity, while below 79%, it is considered to have overcapacity. According to a report on China's auto production capacity and analysis released by the National Development and Reform Commission and China Automotive Industry Association and China Automotive Technology and Research Center, 37 major auto companies that accounted for 98% of annual auto production have formed vehicle production capacity by the end of 2015. 31.22 million vehicles, of which passenger car production capacity was 25.75 million, capacity utilization rate was 81%; commercial vehicle production capacity was 5.47 million, and capacity utilization rate was only 52%. According to the international evaluation indicators, China's commercial vehicles have experienced a serious overcapacity.

Of course, some people will ask: Last year, the utilization rate of passenger car capacity in China was 81%. Is there no worry about excess? In fact, the situation is not entirely true. The reason is that there are also polarizations among passenger car companies. Some enterprises have a shortage of products and have to work overtime to produce some products. However, some enterprises cannot sell their products at a discount, and the operating rate of equipment is seriously insufficient. In particular, in the passenger car factories built by multinational companies in China in the past few years, the production capacity will be released in this year and next year. The structural excess of passenger car capacity can be said to have been “on the road”.

Overcapacity is not only bad for the sustainable development of the industry itself, but also affects the healthy operation of the entire national economy. The extent of the damage, how deep the impact, the steel industry is a forerunner. So, how to solve the current auto overcapacity problem? The author believes that the "two-wheel" drive is needed, and efforts are made from two aspects.

On the one hand, we must accelerate the structural reform of the supply side of the automobile industry. A car is an industry known for its size. Without a certain scale, it is difficult to reduce costs and generate benefits. Without certain benefits, the development of follow-up products is difficult to advance. As a result, some car companies are desperately trying to increase their production capacity and expand their scale. It should be acknowledged that such a "play" is appropriate during the period of rapid market growth. However, now that economic development has entered a new normal, the automobile market has entered a period of micro-growth and even overcapacity. If it depends on scale and quality, it may be "failed."

It can be said that there is such a phenomenon in all overcapacity industries: low-tech products, not only the market competition is fierce, the profit margin is extremely low, and even the loss is profitable; and the high-tech products meet the needs of consumers. The products are in short supply, not even supplied. Taking new energy vehicles as an example, in some cities where shopping is limited, market demand is getting bigger and bigger, but today, no car company can launch star models that are cost-effective and meet consumer demand. Therefore, it is imperative that car companies develop products that the market really needs through technological innovation, thereby increasing effective supply and reducing invalid “labor”.

On the other hand, we must accelerate the merger and reorganization of the automotive industry. At present, there are 171 automobile manufacturers in China, and the automobile industry in Germany and the United States is mainly concentrated in the “three big”, which is still too scattered. The problem is that quite a few of them have neither core technology nor star products, and some have backward production capacity and low production efficiency, which makes it difficult to form a competitive advantage in the market.

International experience also shows that industrial production in developed countries is usually achieved through mergers and acquisitions by large enterprises. After the reorganization of large enterprises, by inputting advanced technology and management, integrating resources, and optimizing products, we can achieve rebalancing between production and market. In fact, when the market economy develops to a certain extent, it will inevitably lead to the integration and restructuring of the industry, which is also an important way to achieve industrial restructuring.

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