The average price-to-earnings ratio has reached 179 times the lithium stocks myth how long

Recently, lithium battery concept stocks have once again become the subject of funds sought after. Chengfei integration announced on July 6th that it will launch a private placement of lithium-ion power battery projects. The resumption of trading on that day was an unrestricted daily limit, and trading was suspended on Monday. The stock price has rushed to 35.86 yuan. In a short period of one and a half months, the impressive growth rate reached 212%.

Since the beginning of this year, China’s support policies for new energy have been frequently launched, and many companies have also begun to engage in lithium-battery, a hot emerging industry.

Some analysts predict that the future of electric vehicles will boost lithium materials by more than 10 times. According to Guohai Securities, the lithium-ion battery-related materials needed to produce only 1 million electric vehicles will be several times the current global demand for lithium battery materials, but investors still need to have a clear understanding of blindness. Follow the concept of hot speculation.

Hot market boosts share price

Lithium shares rose 33% in January and a half

According to statistics, since the July 2nd market bottomed out, the concept of lithium has been playing a leading role in the sector, and all 31 lithium concept stocks recorded positive gains during this period, with an overall increase of 33.36% in the two cities. Ranked first in each sector.

A few days ago, the "2011-2020 Automotive and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan" consultation draft was exposed by the media. Among them, the amount of investment of 100 billion yuan and "the number one in the world by 2020" are very attractive. According to reports, this 100 billion yuan has been planned to key technologies for R&D and industrialization, demonstration and promotion, core component R&D, pilot city infrastructure construction and other fields. Immediately afterwards, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry, and the Ministry of Finance jointly released the second batch of energy-saving vehicle promotion catalogues last week. According to the catalogue, 61 models of 12 companies including Beiqi Foton, Changan Ford Motor Co., Ltd. and Dongfeng Motor were selected. On Wednesday, 16 central SOEs established the “Grand Alliance of New Energy Vehicle Central Enterprises”. According to industry analysts, the large-scale entry into the new energy vehicle by the central SOEs can quickly boost the development of the industry and avoid the status of “respecting each other”.

In the field of electric vehicles, although there are currently gaps of four to five years, it is not impossible to catch up. The relevant support policies that will be issued in succession will surely make the industry develop tremendously.

Cheng Fei integrated into a sky

With the continuous exposure of favorable policies, the Lithium Concepts Unit has also become the main leader in the market since 2009. According to statistics, the overall lithium concept of 2009 rose 172.04%; while the stock index's gain was only 79.18% over the same period. Since the beginning of this year, the market's speculation on the concept of lithium has only increased. Although the Shanghai Composite Index once fell by 27.57% since the first half of the year, the average decline of lithium concept stocks was only 8.15%. In July, with the favorable policies, Lithium Concepts became a cattle stock concentration camp. Shanghai-Shenzhen and Shanghai-Shenzhen cities witnessed the largest increase and the share price has doubled. Since it was announced on July 6th that it will launch privately-owned lithium-ion power battery projects, Chengfei integration has become the object of market funds. The resumption of trading on the same day, Cheng Fei integrated then immeasurable daily limit, as of the close on the 20th, 23rd suspension, the share price has been rushed to 35.86 yuan.

Institutions zeal over the sea

For such a popular segment of themes, the funds that have always been sensitive to the senses will not easily let go of this gold mine. The wind data shows that the 16 lithium concept listed companies that have announced semi-annual reports have all been funded by funds and other institutions during the reporting period, holding a total of 161,235 million shares.

Take China Baoan, which has the largest amount of institutional funds, as an example. In the second quarter, 11 funds held 278 million shares of the company, which accounted for 25.96% of the company's liquidity. In the shareholding fund, the Chinese Department of Xia has the most active performance. The growth of China Advantage, the growth of Huaxia Prosperity, and the China Huaxia return hold a total of 75.67 million shares of China Baoan, an increase of 33.21 million shares from the previous quarter.

Coincidentally, the other one of the Lithium Concepts led the stocks of Desai batteries, which were also favored by China and the Department of Industrial Funds. The Chinese market featured by Wang Yawei and China Strategy selected the second quarter respectively. 197 million shares and 1.69 million shares; China Renaissance regained 1.34 million shares. Industrial Bank's Social Responsibility and Industrial Capital Group's two funds purchased 6.9 million shares of Desai batteries in the second quarter.

Lack of support for speculation overdraft

Lithium stocks up to 179 times earnings

The data shows that the current average price-to-earnings ratio of the 31 Lithium concept stocks has reached 179.86 times, not only far beyond the average level of the A-share market, but also higher than the average of 34.67 times the new energy sector.

"According to the current development of the domestic lithium industry, the market's recent hype over the concept of lithium is clearly overly optimistic." Guoyuan Securities analyst Lai Yijun said that the production of lithium batteries can be split into cathode materials, separators, electrolytes, In the four sub-sectors of negative materials, there are some problems in these four sub-sectors.

In terms of cathode materials, lithium iron phosphate will be the mainstream of future development due to the excellent indicators. However, most domestic companies produce lithium cobaltate, lithium manganate, etc., and there are not many manufacturers that actually produce lithium iron phosphate. Shanghai Putian and Hengdian East Magnetic also conducted research and development of lithium iron phosphate, but no results have been achieved.

In terms of electrolyte, Jiangsu Guotai is considered to be the leading domestic manufacturer of electrolytes. However, the synthesis technology of lithium hexafluorophosphate, which is an important electrolyte for the production of electrolytes, has been monopolized by foreign countries. Currently, it mainly relies on imports. The company is currently organizing efforts to tackle technological problems.

In terms of anode materials, Shenzhen Beitui New Energy Co., Ltd., which is 62.3% of China Baoan Holdings, is the leading company in China and currently ranks first in China and second in the world. However, from the Baoan semi-annual report, although the new energy business revenue growth rate of 119% year-on-year, but the proportion of the company's total net profit is only 10.2%, the performance of the company does not play a role in thickening.

The windfall myth has more water

According to statistics, after the restart of the IPO, there are currently seven companies involved in the lithium battery industry successively landing A-shares, and the total initial fund-raising of the seven companies reached 6.26 billion yuan. Many companies have set foot in the "Lithium" hot emerging industry, but behind the massive investment, what is the actual profitability of the lithium industry?

Although there are a number of lithium battery manufacturers in the two cities, such as Yiwei Lithium, Desai batteries, etc., but in line with the future direction of the industry, can really produce large quantities of power lithium battery manufacturers for automobiles but not. Billion Welt Lithium is known as the leading lithium battery manufacturer in China, but its products are mainly used in smart meters, automotive electronics, electronic security and other industries, not vehicle power batteries. This round of movement is completely independent of the broader market. The main focus of Desai battery is mobile power. Huizhou, which holds 75% of its holdings, is only conducting preliminary research and development of power batteries. The market speculation is that it owns 39% of shares of Yieng Electronics. The development of electric vehicle power system management, although the technology is leading, but at present it only has cooperation with Changan Automobile, and its contribution to the performance of the company is not obvious. Shanshan shares began to enter the lithium battery industry from around 1999, but according to the company’s relevant sources, the company’s lithium battery business currently accounts for 30% to 40% of the company’s total revenue, and its profit margin is around 16%. According to Wind data, the average net profits of 16 listed lithium companies listed in the semi-annual report are about 120% higher than the same period of last year. The overall performance of A-share listed companies in the first half of this year is basically the same, showing that the lithium industry is not an A-share market. The unique "windfall" industry.

It is difficult to break away from supporting speculation

The industry's development is less than expected, and the myth of profit-making is only a legend. Looking back at the concept of lithium that speeds up like a wild horse, it will inevitably make people's minds more and more useless.

Hua Xia Securities analyst Li Xia pointed out that the concept of new energy was speculated last year for one year, and the entire sector was in the process of oversold bounce. Objectively speaking, the growth of the lithium industry is beyond doubt, but the short-term increase in stock prices is too large, and the short-term performance improvement is not obvious. For example, Chengfei integration, although the injected lithium battery assets belong to high-tech products, it is still unable to accurately predict the commercialization maturity cycle and the target market capacity, which poses a certain risk for the company to achieve the expected benefits of investment projects. It is suggested that investors should consider the investment opportunities of the relevant stocks with the long-term investment. In particular, some second-tier and third-tier varieties that have not yet been fully hyped by the market, such as Huafang Textile, CITIC Guoan, and Kane shares.

Investors can't sleep on lithium stocks

"Lithium battery concept was too hot for a while. I chase high to buy Chengfei integrated and Desai batteries. This week really was a thrilling." Lao Zhang is an old investor in Nanping Southwest Securities, he said recently The soaring lithium concept made him very unsteady: just sit still and worry about this wave of lithium power will be the same as other hot spots in the market staged a "short-term tour"; to sell stocks for safety, but also a bit reluctant. Like Lao Zhang, many small retail investors feel a bit "tangled" in the face of the recent market "lithium power market."

"I've been hesitating for a day to sell. After all, these two trading days have yielded more than 10%." Like Lao Zhang, the stockholder, Miss Chen, bought the Salt Lake Group on Thursday and she When buying, many people still advised her not to chase high. “Actually, when I bought it, I didn’t have much assurance. After all, the recent hotspot conversions are very fast. It’s hard to say that the lithium battery concept won't be performed just like a medical stock for two or three days.” Miss Chen said that because she was worried about the trend of stocks, I can't sleep at night. Finally, the Salt Lake Group was sold on the daily limit last Friday.

“In the beginning of August, there was a surge in Chengfei integration. At that time, I hesitated to buy it.” Mr. Liu, a stockholder, did not buy in this wave of rising stocks of Li-ion, and he has been mainly on a wait-and-see basis. However, Mr. Liu said that he had also been very "tangled" in the past two trading days. "In the process of rising, I stepped out of the air. This week Zhou Chengfei's integration began to force. I watched it all the way from 27 yuan to 35 yuan, but it has not been bought." In recent transactions Japan Lithium Power Concept stocks have a strong performance. Mr. Liu, who wants to buy and fears that he will take a high position, has always been in an anxious state. Among the 20 investors surveyed, there were 11 investors who did not purchase lithium-ion concept stocks in the last two trading days, and they were mainly afraid of being “up to the top”. According to Chongqing Business Daily