"In 2005, the heavy-duty truck market was unexpectedly down." Wang Wenyu, deputy general manager of China National Heavy Duty Trucks, told reporters with a bit of helplessness. Compared to 2004's "hot", the heavy truck market in 2005 suddenly turned to the bottom.

According to the latest statistical data, the sales of domestic heavy truck companies have generally declined. In 2005, the heavy truck market experienced the first negative growth in eight years.

Drop

"Dongfeng Heavy Truck Co., Ltd. reluctantly completed its tasks from January to June. It is estimated that the future situation is not optimistic." Tong Dongcheng, deputy general manager of Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd. and general manager of commercial vehicle company, said with a solemn face. According to the latest statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November 2005, Dongfeng Motor, which ranked first in heavy truck sales, sold only 66,788 vehicles, a decrease of 29% from 93,899 vehicles in the same period last year.

In addition to Dongfeng, in 2005, the top five sales of heavy trucks ranked among the top four companies - FAW, CNHTC, Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck and Beiqi Foton. The actual sales volume for the period from January to November all fell to varying degrees.

Before 2004, the heavy truck market maintained almost double-digit growth. “In the 'blowout' era, the heavy truck market is in short supply, and cars must be booked in advance.” The head of a heavy truck company recalled the happy life at the time. “Some customers are afraid of not buying a car, and even park it at the dealer with a brick. The glass of the car was smashed and the car was bought back after the owner had no intention of buying it, but that situation can only be seen in a dream.”

original sin

In just two years, why is the heavy truck market undergoing such a major change?

A person in charge of Dongfeng Motor said: “Every time the country’s macroeconomic regulation and control will have an impact on the auto industry, heavy trucks as vehicles for production data will be more affected by this.”

However, the impact of macro-control has gone through as early as 2004. Why did the decline in sales occur in 2005? "Since 2005, the government has been overstretched, which is the most direct cause of the declining heavy-duty market this year." Zhang Boshun, secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers' Market and Trade Committee, believes this.

Zhang Boshun's statement was also confirmed by the relevant person in charge of Dongfeng Motor. “In June 2004, a large-scale super-violence operation was launched across the country, which caused a surge in demand for the heavy-duty truck market. However, since 2005, some local law enforcement standards in some parts of the country have been tightened before the end of 2005, resulting in transportation. The uncertainty of business operations has increased, triggering a wait-and-see attitude of users."

Of course, the factors causing the overall decline in sales of heavy trucks do not stop there. Liu Keqiang, manager of Shaanxi Zhongqi Marketing Department, said: "Since the country strengthened its efforts to rectify the coal industry in 2005, a large number of small coal mines dominated by road transport have been shut down, which has also led to a sharp drop in demand for the heavy truck market. ”

“The more important reason is that the rapid growth of the heavy truck market in the past few years has now entered a period of decline. Together with the continuous rise in oil prices, the increase in transportation costs has also weakened the enthusiasm of users to purchase heavy trucks.” Zhang Boshun said.

Change

In the face of a continuously declining market, some heavy truck companies have begun to turn their attention to other areas. After Jianghuai Automobile announced that it would enter the mid-to-high-class car market, Beiqi Foton Motor also unveiled its plan to build an economical car not long ago.

Heavy truck giants such as Dongfeng, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Shaanxi Heavy Gas convinced that the sales decline in the heavy truck market is only a phased one. With the gradual improvement of the policy environment and the investment of the next “five-year plan”, the heavy truck market will usher in a new period of growth within three years.

“Should heavy-duty companies be more clear-headed and think about how much growth is in the market?” said Chen Yusong, general manager of the automotive division of Sunny Caydney Consulting. For many years, commercial vehicles with heavy trucks as an important component have been in the entire automobile industry. The market structure is in a dominant position, and commercial vehicles maintain a market contribution of more than 50% every year. However, in 2005, the market structure of commercial vehicles and passenger cars has undergone a "qualitative change." From January to November, commercial vehicle sales accounted for only 31.6% of the total sales contribution of the automotive market. The pattern of commercial vehicles leading the Chinese auto market was broken for the first time.

Some industry insiders believe that this qualitative change means that the overall demand structure of the Chinese automotive market has undergone fundamental changes. With the increase of residents' income, the commercial nature of the car will be weakened in the future, and passenger use will increase.

Liu Keqiang said: “Since 2006, the competition pattern among the top five heavy truck companies will change significantly. Enterprises that have long been seizing the market with low prices or appearance will inevitably yield a share of the market. "Wang Wenyu also believes that companies now located in the second tier and new entrants will face an integrated crisis.



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